Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) ETF investors are facing a critical test as prices hover near their collective entry level following weeks of sustained outflows.
Institutional conviction is under pressure as exchange-traded fund holdings have fallen by more than $6 billion from recent highs.
New on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows ETF buyers struggling to maintain exposure amid weakening price momentum.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative outflows exceeding $6 billion since net assets peaked at $72.6 billion in October 2025.
The pullback followed Bitcoin’s all-time high near $126,200, which marked the turning point for institutional positioning.
Current price action has brought Bitcoin close to the ETF realised price of roughly $86,600, the average level at which ETF investors entered the market.
Analysts describe this zone as a make-or-break area for sentiment as unrealised profits across ETF holders have largely evaporated.
With price sitting on the ETF realised price, the marginal ETF holder is no longer a seller locking in gains, but an investor deciding whether to tolerate drawdowns or exit at breakeven,” I.
Moreno said.
Moreno added that trading around this level often determines whether inflows stabilise or accelerate to the downside.
Historically, this zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realised price reinforces conviction, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions.
Moreno added.
ETF holdings are now down around 8.4% from October levels, marking the first major stress test since US spot ETF approval.
Despite volatile price moves, CryptoQuant data shows the ETF realised price has remained relatively stable over the past six months.
Moreno noted that ETF investors have already absorbed significant pressure without a sharp collapse in average entry levels.
The sustained outflow pressure suggests distribution from less committed capital, likely late-cycle entrants.
Moreno emphasized.
January has proven particularly difficult, with outflows dominating trading sessions after mid-month.
Data from Farside Investors shows consistent net redemptions from 16 January onwards.
Only 26 January recorded net inflows, totalling just $6.8 million, while several products still posted losses.
Despite near-term weakness, optimism is building around future institutional participation.
Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, pointed to growing engagement from major US brokerage networks.
Major US wirehouses with tens of thousands of financial advisers continue to move into Bitcoin ETFs.
Andre Dragosch said.
One of them has just greenlighted today.
Dragosch added.
Dragosch declined to identify the firm, citing internal intelligence constraints.
He argued that broader adviser access could drive renewed ETF demand once market conditions stabilise.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $89,824.68.