Prediction markets turn cautious as Bitcoin slips below $87K

Bitcoin fell below $87,000 on Sunday, hitting an intraday low near $86,117 and prompting mixed signals across prediction markets.

Data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad Markets showed long-term optimism alongside short-term caution.

A Myriad contract showed traders assigning a 67.3% probability that bitcoin will hit $100,000 before falling to $69,000.

The same contract has no expiry date, reflecting directional conviction rather than near-term timing.

Short-dated Kalshi markets painted a more guarded picture, with roughly even odds on bitcoin trading above $86,750 by January 30.

Traders priced the outcome close to a coin flip, indicating limited conviction in either direction.

Polymarket’s January 26 contract showed the highest probability, at 43%, for bitcoin to trade between $86,000 and $88,000.

Lower-probability brackets clustered tightly around nearby price ranges, reinforcing expectations of consolidation.

Extreme scenarios carried little weight, with sub-$84,000 outcomes below 10% and prices above $90,000 under 6%.

A broader January Polymarket contract placed a 69% probability on bitcoin topping out near $85,000 for the month.

Targets above $100,000 were assigned probabilities of 1% or less despite more than $61 million in total volume.

Overall, prediction markets suggested traders expect rangebound trading in the near term while remaining bullish over longer horizons.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $86,471.84.