Retail traders are positioning for a major XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) rebound in 2026 despite the token losing momentum early in the year.
Data from Robinhood Derivatives indicates a 73% probability that XRP breaks above the $2.75 level before 31 December 2026.
The probability is derived from Robinhood’s Event Contracts, a binary product allowing traders to speculate on specific price outcomes.
Event Contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99 and settle at $1.00 if the target is reached by the deadline.
If the price target is not met, the contract expires with no value.
Market sentiment suggests strong belief in a medium-term XRP recovery despite recent volatility.
A move above the $3.00 level is viewed as evenly balanced, with contracts trading around 53 cents.
The 53-cent pricing reflects a market-implied probability of roughly 53% for XRP to reclaim $3.00.
Traders are also showing interest in higher upside scenarios beyond the $3 threshold.
Contracts targeting a move to $3.25 are trading at approximately 44 cents.
This pricing suggests nearly half of participants expect a rally into the mid-$3 range.
The data highlights continued retail conviction even as broader crypto markets remain uneven.
XRP began the year with strong bullish momentum after opening near the $1.95 to $2.00 range.
Buying pressure intensified during the first week of January, pushing prices higher.
The token reached a year-to-date high close to $2.40 before momentum stalled.
The rally reversed sharply after the $2.40 level was tested.
XRP quickly fell back through the $2.10 and $2.00 support zones with limited buying support.
The rapid decline erased earlier gains accumulated during the opening weeks of the year.
As of 25 January, XRP was trading at approximately $1.8942.
The current price places the token below its opening levels for the year.
The pullback means XRP has surrendered nearly all gains recorded in early 2026.
Despite the retracement, derivative markets suggest long-term optimism remains intact.
Traders appear to be separating short-term weakness from longer-term price expectations.
The strong interest in event-based contracts signals speculative appetite among retail investors.
Market participants are using these instruments to express directional views with defined risk.
The structure of the contracts caps potential losses at the purchase price.
Analysts note that such products often attract sentiment-driven trading behaviour.
The concentration of bets around the $2.75 and $3.00 levels highlights key psychological targets.
XRP’s ability to regain bullish momentum may depend on broader market conditions.
Liquidity trends and regulatory developments could influence price action through 2026.
For now, Robinhood’s data suggests retail traders are willing to bet on a delayed XRP comeback.
At the time of reporting, XRP price was $1.89.